Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 77411.728817 81775.243289 86142.358942 90837.915013 95740.678669 100705.618036 106110.448525
2025-12-21 70112.788605 76746.261581 83574.319150 91118.401994 99210.296114 107619.538909 117009.567357
2025-12-28 65764.082239 74027.810506 82722.783999 92533.870615 103276.366731 114660.969936 127618.044200
2026-01-04 62210.710324 71696.259732 81862.114774 93535.160435 106535.007309 120534.056440 136714.792034
2026-01-11 59102.463143 69542.656406 80913.789754 94171.236819 109153.831956 125511.340901 144669.178610
2026-01-18 56160.808952 67345.167708 79707.026695 94319.256262 111051.884897 129545.446006 151460.042401
2026-01-25 53647.542573 65465.175151 78704.452680 94551.818756 112917.237582 133441.561995 158019.841611
2026-02-01 51228.767175 63553.355449 77537.066265 94473.650490 114321.211913 136730.734185 163828.239105
2026-02-08 49517.974104 62373.685371 77131.543701 95199.399537 116588.674713 140964.797782 170699.797407
2026-02-15 47546.775706 60786.729901 76159.430802 95177.295037 117912.394291 144054.640507 176212.178876
2026-02-22 46457.787463 60203.152459 76328.280649 96465.926217 120752.469548 148903.114725 183791.207862
2026-03-01 45227.360286 59386.756808 76165.238729 97311.019858 123030.838864 153073.071698 190573.277404
2026-03-08 43612.085322 58051.297917 75339.297855 97332.295845 124315.684065 156081.725272 196023.124051
2026-03-15 42240.696084 56969.528614 74780.680992 97643.469206 125927.178757 159472.936785 201943.812916
2026-03-22 41542.460433 56703.181111 75203.342930 99144.450119 128984.323450 164613.728941 210002.409474
2026-03-29 40683.109658 56193.867657 75291.448282 100204.539936 131484.631470 169079.542741 217262.109436
2026-04-05 39697.550637 55483.499707 75093.200917 100877.607981 133486.379873 172931.287812 223784.342262
2026-04-12 38534.181865 54500.757110 74512.333173 101034.228006 134818.012068 175946.472462 229281.267785
2026-04-19 37473.176519 53616.107587 74024.513199 101280.247014 136240.660469 179064.077727 234909.455276
2026-04-26 36324.914291 52578.364060 73304.953996 101197.561309 137222.319818 181618.902407 239837.601685
2026-05-03 35592.950376 52073.006951 73256.816356 101965.244051 139278.537498 185519.544052 246463.964161
2026-05-10 34569.826778 51142.014206 72621.258357 101941.863350 140299.766225 188107.969718 251445.318821
2026-05-17 34154.216093 51024.091410 73048.574991 103304.807515 143112.231926 192974.654049 259331.442985